With the next national election looming, due to be held by May 17, political types are wondering whether Monash may have a key role to play in which party forms government.

At the 2022 poll the current MP Russell Broadbent was representing the Liberal Party, and won on the two-party preferred vote by 52.9 percent to the Labor candidate Jessica O’Donnell’s 47.1 percent.

This equated to a loss in Broadbent’s 2PP vote of 3.96 percent. On first preferences the news was even less palatable - a drop in support of 8.19 percent.

Broadbent bails, spice added to the mix

In 2023 - in the wake of controversial statements about Covid vaccines - Broadbent, 74, failed to be preselected again by the Liberal Party. He quit, preferring to sit as an independent.

Named after Sir John Monash (1865–1931), a WWI military commander, the seat is designated as rural and covers 8,255 square kilometres.

With Broadbent throwing his hat into the ring again, and the Liberals attempting to position its candidate Mary Aldred as the way forward, there is concern in some quarters about splitting the conservative vote. Preferences may be crucial.

Will Broadbent and Aldred play footsies and swap preferences, or attempt to freeze each other out? In which case, who may slide into first place?

Leonard aims to become first Independent MP for Monash

At the 2022 election independent Deb Leonard attracted 10.72 percent of the first preference vote. 

It wasn’t enough to get her into a run-off with Broadbent (the ALP’s O’Donnell had more than 24,000 votes), but she secured more first preference votes than The Greens and One Nation.

Leonard said she will run again in 2025, and aims to become Monash’s first indie MP (the seat was created in 2019). 

Liberal candidate Aldred is the founding CEO of the Committee for Gippsland. She has  served as Chair of the Gippsland United Basketball League and of the Gippsland Water Community Advisory Committee.

Could Independents have some heavy bargaining power?

With the possibility of a hung parliament, independent MPs and minor parties could hold the balance of power, giving them the ability to decide whether the ALP or Liberal/National Coalition forms government.

But what might they want in return?

When the votes are tallied, the horse trading may begin, as those with the balance of power attempt to shore up funding for major projects in their electorates, ahead of guaranteeing support.

At a campaign event in Drouin on Sunday Leonard said she was focused on bringing critical infrastructure projects - such as a new West Gippsland Hospital - to completion, and on improving health services to meet the needs of a growing community. 

The Greens are running a new candidate, Terence Steele. He has lived in Gippsland for over 20 years and his priorities include more action on climate change, health, education and affordable housing.