New Monash poll shows Independent Deb Leonard and Liberal Mary Aldred in a dead heat

New polling suggests the Monash election will go down to the wire.

The uComms poll - conducted from April 8 to 10 - gave Liberal Party candidate Mary Aldred 50.3 percent of the two-candidate preferred vote, with Independent Deb Leonard on 49.7 percent. 

At the 2022 election around 96,000 people cast a formal vote in Monash. If the uComms poll was replicated on May 3, and the same number of people voted as in 2022, the result between the two leading candidates could come down to about 300 votes. 

The poll surveyed 1,014 Monash voters and had a margin of error of 3.06 percent.

Leonard had a slight edge with undecided voters, with 22.6 percent leaning towards the Independent and 22 percent leaning towards Aldred.

The uComm poll estimated 12 percent of females and 7.9 percent of males were undecided, meaning swing voters could play a decisive role.

Preferences will also be hugely important. Under Australia’s preferential voting system, if you vote for a candidate and they are not elected it doesn’t mean your vote is wasted, as the ballot papers allow you to number candidates (or parties) from most preferred to least preferred.

Over the last week many candidates have released their voting preferences, signalling where their votes would go if they are not elected.

Aldred and former Liberal turned Independent MP Russell Broadbent have both effectively put Deb Leonard last on their how to vote ballots. They both placed One Nation and Family First above Labor, the Greens and Leonard.

Broadbent put Aldred fifth on his how to vote card and Aldred placed Broadbent fourth.

Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots has placed Leonard second and placed Aldred last.

Palmer’s United Australia Party polled 4.13 percent in Monash at the last election, so these preferential votes could be crucial.

Leonard has chosen to not do preference deals with any other candidates, saying in a statement “I trust the voters of Monash to make up their own minds about how to number every box on their ballot according to their own judgement and values”.

Broadbent may have quit the Liberal Party, but he is still putting its candidate Aldred ahead of Lenoard.

“Deb Leonard didn’t want to do a preference deal with me, and she’s aligned herself with the Greens and Labor, therefore why would she be high up on my card?” Broadbent told the Gippsland Monitor on Tuesday afternoon.

Comment was sought from Aldred but she did not respond before publication.